Covid Winter Outlook

Positive covid tests in Europe (ECDC/FT)

Published: September 19, 2020

As predicted by SPR months ago based on antibody data, covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths are now increasing again in many European countries. Antibody values are still very low (<5%) in much of Europe and also in large parts of the US. In global hotspots like New York City, IgG antibody values peaked at about 25%, indicating a population exposure above 50%.

Israel has already imposed a second lockdown, Spain has again 25% of its ICU capacity occupied by covid patients, in France covid hospitalizations are increasing rapidly, and in Switzerland contact tracing is already reaching its limits, even though winter season hasn’t even begun. Needless to say, all of these countries have strict (but ineffective) facemask mandates.

The notable exception to this development is Sweden, where without a lockdown and without facemasks, the infection rate is currently approaching zero, see graph above.

Overall, a 1918-like pandemic pattern with a mild spring wave and a stronger autumn/winter wave appears quite likely. On the plus side, covid death rates are now lower than in spring as medical strategies have improved and some of the worst mistakes are avoided. An important question is if places with 20% IgG antibodies will already benefit from some sort of collective immunity.

The single biggest mistake still made by many Western health authorities is ignoring zinc- and HCQ-based early and prophylactic treatment, as recently described by Professor Thomas Borody (“patients turning around within hours”), Dr. Brian Tyson (“every single patient has recovered”), Professor Christian Perronne (“20,000 preventable deaths in France alone”), and many others.

Many traditional media have lost their credibility by vastly exaggerating the risk of covid to the general population, but some of the critics have also lost touch with reality by arguing that SARS-2 was “just another coronavirus”, by falsely claiming the pandemic was over (based on PCR data), or by downplaying signifcant “long covid” health issues.

SPR will continue to provide unbiased covid facts and keep an eye on political and geopolitical pandemic-related developments.

See also: Why covid is a “strange pandemic” and Facts about Covid-19

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