Published: February 20, 2021
Will there be a third coronavirus wave in March 2021?
SPR was one of the first research groups in the world to predict, already in July/August 2020, a second, stronger coronavirus wave in much of Europe and the US. The rationale was simple: the seasonality of the coronavirus was well-known, the antibody seroprevalence was still very low (even in large parts of Sweden), authorities relied on mostly useless measures (e.g. masks), and they ignored or suppressed highly effective early and prophylactic treatment options.
Furthermore, most flu pandemics of the 20th century consisted of two to three waves, while the 1889 pandemic, suspected to have been caused by a coronavirus, extended over five years.
Nevertheless, many skeptics and many authorities were surprised by the second wave: the former because they falsely believed in ‘herd immunity’, the latter because they falsely believed in ineffective measures (masks, contact tracing, social distancing, et cetera).
So what about a third coronavirus wave in March 2021? Many skeptics again deny it, while many authorities predict or fear it, but for the wrong reasons, namely new virus variants: yes, new variants have been displacing old variants, but even in places where new variants dominate, they haven’t changed the trajectory of the local epidemic, irrespective of the measures in place.
Nevertheless, a third wave in March is entirely possible, but for the very same reasons as described above: the coronavirus season lasts until March/April, antibody seroprevalence is still quite low in many places (e.g. below 10% in Germany), and authorities still rely on mostly useless measures.
Furthermore, some of the existing vaccines appear to be somewhat less effective against some of the new variants (notably the ‘South African’ and the ‘Brazilian’ variants), and the mass vaccination campaigns themselves appear to have driven the spread of the coronavirus into high-risk groups in several countries, leading to an additional increase in covid deaths.
The obvious solution to preempt a potential third wave is ivermectin-based early and prophylactic treatment, but at least in Western Europe and the US, authorities will try to suppress this approach and will insist on their devastating lockdown and late-treatment strategy.