Published: September 2022
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Reported excess mortality among youngsters was EuroMomo baseline mistake.
Several observers have noticed that, according to the European mortality monitoring website EuroMomo, European kids aged 0-14 appear to have suffered record excess mortality in 2022.
For some, this was a sure sign that unvaccinated children were suffering an omicron apocalypse; for others, it was clear evidence that covid vaccines were decimating the young.
But it turns out that it was a simple baseline mistake by EuroMomo: when calculating the 2022 baseline, EuroMomo included the years 2020 and 2021, during which children experienced record low mortality, since most childhood diseases were displaced by the novel coronavirus â which was rather harmless to most children â and accidents were also at a very low level.
If the mortality baseline in children is adjusted to the long-term declining trend (excluding the outlier years 2020 and 2021), the “excess mortality” in 2022 disappears completely (see chart above).
However, while there was below-average mortality in children in the year 2021, one can see that there was a relative increase in mortality in the second half of that year (by about 300 children).
Was this a random “return to the mean”, or delta covid deaths, or a return of other childhood diseases (e.g. the large RSV wave in late summer), or indeed vaccine-related deaths?
Data from Britain previously indicated that teenage boys, but not teenage girls, were experiencing above-average mortality in the second half of 2021, raising questions about a possible role of covid vaccine-induced heart inflammation (which affects primarily young males).
The 2022 EuroMomo baseline mistake was once again revealed by a “random Twitter user” with 294 followers. While EuroMomo is a great project and an amazing website, they probably weren’t prepared for a pandemic and the “exponential” public interest that came with it.
In conclusion, over the last two and a half years the average citizen might have been better off ignoring both official propaganda and the many “unreported truths” on social media and elsewhere, but at any rate, mortality among European children in 2022 looks normal.
Figures
What EuroMomo shows (false baseline)
What it actually looks like (corrected baseline)
Weekly deaths and baseline
