Israel: Why Is All-Cause Mortality Increasing?

All-cause deaths 65+, previous 7 days (Source: Israeli CBS)

Updated: June 12, 2021
: March 31, 2021
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Why has Israeli all-cause mortality increased after the vaccination campaign?

(See updates below.)

By early March, Israel had vaccinated about 90% of its 65+ population and about 50% of its entire population. Covid deaths had been decreasing since the end of January, as expected, although not any faster than in some other countries with a very low vaccination rate, such as South Africa.

Concerningly, however, Israel has seen a renewed and continued increase in all-cause mortality since mid-February; in fact, by March 21, Israel reported the highest excess mortality of all countries participating in Euromomo. In contrast, many other European countries currently report a post winter wave negative excess mortality.

The cause behind this renewed increase in Israeli all-cause mortality appears to be unclear. According to Israeli newspaper YNet, the director of an Israeli clinic explained that they are currently seeing “a murky wave of heart attacks”. The director believes that this might be due to the “persistent stressful situation” and the “neglect of preventive medical care”.

Although quite a few cases of post-vaccination heart muscle inflammation, heart failure and heart attacks have been reported in Israel since December (see e.g. 1, 2, 3), the hospital director argues that “a connection to heart damage from the vaccine has not yet been proven to be significant.”

Nevertheless, given the paramount global importance of this question, Israeli and international public health authorities may want to answer it as quickly as possible.

Update, April 28

The latest data provided by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (updated on April 28 with data until April 4) confirms a substantial increase in deaths since late February. On April 26, Israel announced an investigation into cases of heart inflammation after covid vaccinations. In the US, too, there have been several reports of post-vaccination heart inflammation and heart attacks in young adults.

All-cause deaths 65+, previous 7 days (Source: Israeli CBS)

Update, June 12

Israeli authorities have confirmed that mRNA vaccines may cause heart inflammation and heart attacks, especially in young people (in whom it is more difficult to ignore). Since February, Israeli deaths in 20 to 29 year olds have also been markedly increased (see figure below). In the US, too, all-cause mortality has markedly increased in most age groups in the wake of vaccinations.

Israel: All-cause deaths, 20-29 years, February to May, 2015 to 2021 (TP/CBS)

Comparison: Decrease in covid deaths

Daily covid deaths in Israel (high vaccination rate), Sweden (low vaccination rate), and South Africa (very low vaccination rate): the decrease since late January has been almost identical. Update: Since about mid-April, covid deaths in Israel are lower than in most other countries.

Daily covid deaths in Israel, Sweden, and South Africa (OWD)

The situation in Israel

A woman describing the situation in Israel in April 2021. The full video is 13 minutes.

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