Fully referenced facts about covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment. (Regular updates below).
“The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” (Albert Camus, 1947)
- Lethality: According to the latest immunological studies, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of covid-19 in the general population is about 0.1% to 0.5% in most countries, which is most closely comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1936, 1957 and 1968.
- Treatment: For people at high risk or high exposure, early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease. According to numerous international studies, early outpatient treatment of covid may reduce hospitalizations and deaths by about 75%.
- Age profile: The median age of covid deaths is over 80 years in most Western countries (78 in the US) and about 5% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of covid mortality is therefore comparable to normal mortality, but increases it proportionally.
- Nursing homes: In many Western countries, about 50% of all covid deaths have occurred in nursing homes, which require targeted and humane protection. In some cases, care home residents died not from the coronavirus, but from weeks of stress and isolation.
- Excess mortality: In most Western countries, the pandemic increased mortality by 5% to 20% in 2020. Up to 30% of the additional deaths were caused not by covid, but by indirect effects of the pandemic and lockdowns (e.g. fewer treatments of cancer and heart attack patients).
- Antibodies: By the end of 2020, antibody seroprevalence was between 10% and 30% of the population in most Western countries. At seroprevalence levels above 30%, a significant decrease in the infection rate was observed in many regions.
- Symptoms: Up to 40% of all infected persons show no symptoms. Overall, about 95% of all people develop at most mild or moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization. Early outpatient treatment may significantly reduce hospitalizations.
- Long covid: About 10% of symptomatic people experience post-acute or long covid, i.e. covid-related symptoms that last for several weeks or months. Long covid may also affect younger and previously healthy people whose initial course of disease was rather mild.
- Transmission: Indoor aerosols appear to be the main route of transmission of the coronavirus, while outdoor aerosols, droplets, as well as most object surfaces appear to play a secondary role. The coronavirus season in the northern hemisphere lasts from about November to April.
- Masks: There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of cloth face masks in the general population, and the introduction of mandatory masks couldn’t contain or slow the epidemic in most countries. If used improperly, masks may increase the risk of infection.
- Children and schools: In contrast to influenza, the risk of disease and transmission in children is rather low in the case of covid. There was and is therefore no medical reason for the closure of elementary schools or other measures specifically aimed at children.
- Vaccines: Real-world studies have shown a high effectiveness of covid vaccines. However, severe and fatal vaccine side effects have been reported even in young people, and the long-term safety and effectiveness of covid vaccines remains unknown. Due to safety concerns, some countries decided against the use of some types of vaccines or the vaccination of children. Based on current evidence, a previous covid infection protects just as well as full vaccination.
- Contact tracing: A WHO study of 2019 on measures against influenza pandemics concluded that from a medical perspective, contact tracing is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Contact tracing apps on cell phones have also proven ineffective in most countries.
- PCR tests: The highly sensitive PCR test kits may in some cases produce false positive or false negative results or react to non-infectious virus fragments from a previous infection. In this regard, the so-called cycle threshold or ct value is an important parameter.
- Virus mutations: Similar to influenza viruses, mutations occur frequently in coronaviruses. Most of these mutations are insignificant, but some of them may increase the transmissibility, virulence or immune evasion of the virus to some extent.
- Lockdowns: In contrast to early border controls, lockdowns have had no significant effect on the pandemic. According to the UN, lockdowns may put the livelihood of 1.6 billion people at acute risk and may push an additional 150 million children into poverty.
- Sweden: In Sweden, covid mortality in 2020, without a lockdown, was comparable to a strong influenza season and somewhat below the EU average. About 50% of Swedish deaths occurred in nursing homes and the median age of Swedish covid deaths was about 84 years.
- Media: The reporting of many media has been unprofessional, has increased fear and panic in the population and has led to a hundredfold overestimation of the lethality of the coronavirus. Some media even used manipulative pictures and videos to dramatize the situation.
- Virus origin: The origin of the new coronavirus remains unknown, but the best evidence currently points to a covid-like pneumonia incident in a Chinese mine in 2012, whose virus samples were collected, stored and researched by the Virology Institute in Wuhan (WIV).
- Surveillance: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the coronavirus pandemic may be used to expand global surveillance. Many governments have restricted fundamental rights of their citizens and announced plans to introduce digital biometric vaccine passports.
- On the treatment of Covid-19
- Studies on Covid-19 lethality
- The evidence on face masks
- On post-acute (“long”) Covid
- On the origin of SARS-CoV-2
Latest SPR Covid Updates
- Obesity and the pandemic (June 2021)
- Covid Mortality: An Overview (March 2021)
- Covid vs. the flu, revisited (March 2021)
- Why the flu has disappeared (February 2021)
- Lockdowns in China in 2021 (February 2021)
- Coronavirus Mutations Update (February 2021)
- Covid and Kids: The Evidence (February 2021)
- The Zero Covid Countries (December 2020)
- Why Covid-19 is a “strange pandemic” (Sept. 2020)
- Covid: The Illusion of Control (January 2021)
- Covid Vaccines: Post-Vaccination Deaths (updated, 2021)
- Guillain-Barré syndrom after covid vaccinations (June 2021)
- Covid Vaccines: The Tip of the Iceberg (May 2021)
- Israel: Why is all-cause mortality increasing? (April 2021)
- The ‘Vaccine Passport’ Agenda (February 2021)
- Can Covid Vaccinations Drive Covid Deaths? (Feb. 2021)
- Vaccines: Successes and Controversies (December 2020)
- Early treatment: Targeting serotonin metabolism (June 2021)
- Is budesonide really effective against covid? (April 2021)
- The fight against Ivermectin has begun (February 2021)
- Ivermectin: WHO review indicates effectiveness (Jan. 2021)
- Why Ivermectin works, and where to buy it (January 2021)
- Remdesivir: An Epidemic Failure (October 2020)
- The fight against HCQ (December 2020)
- Danish Mask Study: No Benefit (November 2020)
- On the Suppressed Danish Mask Study (October 2020)
- WHO Mask Study Seriously Flawed (September 2020)
- The Censorship Pandemic (May 2021)
- On the “people collapsing in Wuhan” (April 2021)
- Lockdowns: Fewer Suicides in 2020? (April 2021)
- British coronavirus variant not more deadly (March 2021)
- Great Barrington Declaration vs John Snow Memorandum (Dec.)
- SARS-2 in Italy in August 2019? Very unlikely. (November 2020)
- Covid: The Big Picture in 7 Charts (October 2020)
- Sweden: The Swedish model in retrospect
- Singapore: Very low case numbers due to early border controls
- Switzerland: Schools, shops and skiing remained mostly open.
- Germany: No excess mortality in 2020, but low seroprevalence
- Australia and New Zealand: Last Western countries following zero-covid
- Africa and Latin America: Lowest and highest covid mortality in the world
- Belarus: No lockdown, but unique demographics.
- Nembro (Italy): The hardest hit place in Europe. What happened